The Putin Gambit: A Conspiracy Theory

A conspiracy theory makes for a self-indulgent post. Nevertheless, here I go.

As we all know, Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric has grown increasingly reckless and unhinged from reality. If he were a villain in a book or a show, he would be so clearly “on the nose” that we might think he was a ludicrous clown were it not for all the death, destruction, tragedy, and misery he’s caused.

However, (cue ominous music) what if both Putin and his inner circle have recognized that the worse Putin behaves, the more valuable his removal from power becomes as a bargaining chip in any peace deal? What if this has only recently occurred to them as a result of their deepening military reversals. And what if (“what ifs” abound in a conspiracy theory) Putin realizes that the best exit for him is one that he has agency over and where he uses his own craziness to strike a better deal?

So, it would go like this. Putin keeps ramping up the craziness, with a crescendo perhaps of something like the flagrant movement of tactical nuclear weapons into ready position. Putin then authorizes a “coup” that places him under house arrest. The West breathes a giant sigh of relief. The “anti-Putinists” immediately agree to a ceasefire and negotiate an end to the hostilities with Ukraine and the West.

The deal might look something like this:

1)    Putin can never be allowed to rule Russia again.

2)    Russia/Ukraine borders return to pre-war status; Russian troops withdraw from Ukraine.

3)    Sanctions end; Russia has to pay something to help Ukraine rebuild.

4)    Ukraine receives security guarantees from NATO against future armed attack.

Ukraine and the West have won. The West’s attention moves on to other matters.

Russia rebuilds its military and does everything short of armed attack to interfere with Ukrainian prosperity, reconstruction, and democracy. Cyber-attacks, bribery scandals, saboteurs, the list can be endless.

Soon Putin leaves “house arrest,” and while he’s not Russia’s leader in name, it becomes clear that he’s still in charge. Putin still controls the money flows.

Russia and Putin bide their time.

If there’s a serious general point to make, it’s that acting crazy, whether naturally or artificially, is a legitimate strategy. This “Madman Strategy” didn’t work for Richard Nixon in 1969 when he tried to convince the North Vietnamese and the Russians that he night use nuclear weapons to end the war. But that doesn’t mean it might not work for Putin. We actually don’t know how much, if any, of Putin’s behavior is staged. And it’s also possible that his rhetoric started out as purposeful hyperbole, but as time has gone on and events have happened, crazy may now be Putin’s reality.