I'm in a very dark place with the state of affairs in our country and the wars around the world. The "plug" for Quill Intelligence is interesting and seems a bit conspiracy theory-ish. I don't know what to believe.
For some reason the $6 million banana reminds me of the lottery. I see before me a humongous amount of money but my chances of getting my hands on it are vanishingly small. I just don't think I will ever be next to a person who is ready to throw that much money into the air while I stand ready with a giant net to catch it.
Thank you for the opportunity to join with others to make a difference! $10,000 is outstanding! Also I very much appreciate the Quill referral. As a community development finance professional, we are definitely hearing the same and have been waiting for the official call of recession for a few years now... Harkening back to 2021, it was imminent. And then miraculously vanished from the public narrative.
I appreciate your POV and I really want to learn more. How does it disappear from the public narrative and who is responsible? I am questioning everything now and must be naive as nothing is making sense to me. I really want to understand what is happening.
I don't think ti disappears as much is ignored because it's a revision of old news. It may bear a similarity to corrections to an article that made a misstatement. Those corrections usually don'r get much notice.
Thanks Emily for the comment. I think there probably is a big spread between the world of investments where for now most everything seems terrific and the real world of most people where there is a lot of financial stress.
Very nice callback there at the end, David. I enjoyed this post for many reasons, including its combination of earnestness and wit. It reminds me how much I'd love to hear more of your thoughts on economics, an area where you have real expertise. When we first began corresponding, you might recall that I felt there was a real disconnect between what the numbers said about the economy (your notion that we'd look back on 2023 as halcyon days) and what my friends and family were experiencing in rural areas. The hidden recession is an interesting explanation of that disconnect.
This was the first piece I've read which has attempted to explain the disconnect with what I was reading in the newspapers versus what people were saying was their main issue "on the ground." I didn't understand how or why the economy was overtaking all else. This was the first bit of information that had a hint of "oh, this makes sense now" to me. As a Canadian, I am not on the ground in the U.S., but having just come back from visiting my son in Florida (the day after the election), I could see that people were about as interested in politics or the election as they were in what's happening in Canada. They weren't. Just busy going about their day. This was a wake up call from the mass hysteria I had been seeing on the internet prior to my arrival. Especially when it came to what I was reading about Florida. I'm still processing.
I am delighted to be able to contribute to your good cause. I don't pay for many subscriptions, because it would be difficult to choose between so many people, but I am happy to help the poor of NYC.
Did you see Debbie Weil's 'Ladies Who Write'? You should have been there, but you have the wrong equipment!
T. S. Eliot possibly shows how the past re pops up in the future. Picture a high level clerk-like job numbers person sitting at their desk looking at low job numbers and a high number of scary company bankruptcies. Instead of a small cup of a strong milky tea in a china cup sitting on its saucer, they drink coffee from a recyclable tall paper cup of dark roast with a little oat milk. And maybe they feel a little indecisive about letting those low jobs numbers or the high companies bankruptcy numbers slip out. So maybe they hike up the former and hike down the latter. Their boss had cautioned them against letting out pesky misinformational data that could lead everyone to a wrong conclusion. It can always be "mopped up" later with an "adjustment" to please anyone who notices a discrepancy, he's said. Thereby all former trust deteriorates for anyone reading those numbers who cares. I think Eliot's day job was working at an English bank. Excellent post.
You're welcome. Yes. Totally agree. I think the election result put these kind of things on notice that they might be looked into. However, we'll have to see what happens.
David, Thank you for doing what you do to help folks living in poverty. Yesterday morning, I watched the seemingly endless line of cars waiting at the food pantry next door for the Thanksgiving meals they give out every year. I've lived next door for 6 years and it seemed that the line was the longest I have seen since the first year of the pandemic. Times are tough for so many of us. Wishing you and yours Happy Thanksgiving.
The high coast of housing is one of the worst factors where I live in coastal Essex County, Massachusetts. As I am sure you know. it's an issue in many areas across the country. I don't know how we make things better for people living in poverty. I don't see poverty policy being re-written to do more for them. We see trickle down most prevalent in poverty policy in fact.
In other words, statistically speaking, "Yes, we have no bananas". I'm afraid the bending of statistics goes way beyond the economy. It was true of Covid. It may well be true of crime, immigration, and who knows what else. Managing without data can be dumb - but managing with data provides every opportunity to shape data to the advantage of the shaper (or shapeshifter, as the case may be). Day to day, the private sector does a decent (though certainly not perfect) job of weeding out this kind of information abuse and free elections serve somewhat the same purpose in the public sector - though with more success. I'm thankful for the checks and balances we have, but more and more, it seems to me as if we are falling into the same failed ways as the the Soviets who managed according to "five year plans" which inevitably produced the Orwellian result of statistical success and real life failure.
Whether the stats were bent purposefully or due to a now flawed methodology, i suppose the result is the same. If I had to guess it would be a flawed model. But who knows?
Opening line from graduate school professor in Advanced Statistics course: “No one disputes their own data.” ‘Bout the only point I remember from that class.
Thanks for the banana! (Marcel Duchamp must be beside himself with glee, spinning in his grave like a top.) And for the quill tip. I’m a rank amateur but good writing on economics is always appreciated. Have always been skeptical of the official stats, though, particularly those that painted a rosy picture of our Century 21 reality while the price of the most valuable non-liquid assets - a house, an education - kept trending steeply upward (when not sinking like a stone a la 2008-9). The revised employment numbers reflect poorly on those that kept insisting everything was actually great, and that voters were swinging at phantoms.
I too am obsessed with the banana
" The Six Million Dollar Banana " - we can rebuild it.....The satire that can be made about a PIECE OF FRUIT ! It's low - hanging. An easy target.
I'm in a very dark place with the state of affairs in our country and the wars around the world. The "plug" for Quill Intelligence is interesting and seems a bit conspiracy theory-ish. I don't know what to believe.
“And time yet for a hundred indecisions, And for a hundred visions and revisions, Before the taking of a toast and tea.”
David, you win the Internet today in the category of Utterly Obscure but Absolutely on Target Literary Reference. Congratulations.
For some reason the $6 million banana reminds me of the lottery. I see before me a humongous amount of money but my chances of getting my hands on it are vanishingly small. I just don't think I will ever be next to a person who is ready to throw that much money into the air while I stand ready with a giant net to catch it.
Good 👍👍
Clever hed!
Thank you for the opportunity to join with others to make a difference! $10,000 is outstanding! Also I very much appreciate the Quill referral. As a community development finance professional, we are definitely hearing the same and have been waiting for the official call of recession for a few years now... Harkening back to 2021, it was imminent. And then miraculously vanished from the public narrative.
I appreciate your POV and I really want to learn more. How does it disappear from the public narrative and who is responsible? I am questioning everything now and must be naive as nothing is making sense to me. I really want to understand what is happening.
I don't think ti disappears as much is ignored because it's a revision of old news. It may bear a similarity to corrections to an article that made a misstatement. Those corrections usually don'r get much notice.
Thanks Emily for the comment. I think there probably is a big spread between the world of investments where for now most everything seems terrific and the real world of most people where there is a lot of financial stress.
Very nice callback there at the end, David. I enjoyed this post for many reasons, including its combination of earnestness and wit. It reminds me how much I'd love to hear more of your thoughts on economics, an area where you have real expertise. When we first began corresponding, you might recall that I felt there was a real disconnect between what the numbers said about the economy (your notion that we'd look back on 2023 as halcyon days) and what my friends and family were experiencing in rural areas. The hidden recession is an interesting explanation of that disconnect.
You were ahed of me, Josh! The stats I'm seeing and the "vibes" at odds with the headlines could very well explain a lot.
This was the first piece I've read which has attempted to explain the disconnect with what I was reading in the newspapers versus what people were saying was their main issue "on the ground." I didn't understand how or why the economy was overtaking all else. This was the first bit of information that had a hint of "oh, this makes sense now" to me. As a Canadian, I am not on the ground in the U.S., but having just come back from visiting my son in Florida (the day after the election), I could see that people were about as interested in politics or the election as they were in what's happening in Canada. They weren't. Just busy going about their day. This was a wake up call from the mass hysteria I had been seeing on the internet prior to my arrival. Especially when it came to what I was reading about Florida. I'm still processing.
Thanks so much Kim.
I do think there is that disconnect, especially for people who are not at the top. Economists refer to it as a K shaped economy.
Do I dare to eat a peach (banana)?
Good one!
Do coconuts seem Freudian ? Sometimes I want to put them in a bra.....
Then again they have those 3 holes or indentations that seem like faces.....
I am delighted to be able to contribute to your good cause. I don't pay for many subscriptions, because it would be difficult to choose between so many people, but I am happy to help the poor of NYC.
Did you see Debbie Weil's 'Ladies Who Write'? You should have been there, but you have the wrong equipment!
Thanks Ann!
T. S. Eliot possibly shows how the past re pops up in the future. Picture a high level clerk-like job numbers person sitting at their desk looking at low job numbers and a high number of scary company bankruptcies. Instead of a small cup of a strong milky tea in a china cup sitting on its saucer, they drink coffee from a recyclable tall paper cup of dark roast with a little oat milk. And maybe they feel a little indecisive about letting those low jobs numbers or the high companies bankruptcy numbers slip out. So maybe they hike up the former and hike down the latter. Their boss had cautioned them against letting out pesky misinformational data that could lead everyone to a wrong conclusion. It can always be "mopped up" later with an "adjustment" to please anyone who notices a discrepancy, he's said. Thereby all former trust deteriorates for anyone reading those numbers who cares. I think Eliot's day job was working at an English bank. Excellent post.
Thanks Larry. Whether it was a flawed model or some other inconsistency, if these revisions hold, something is rotten.
You're welcome. Yes. Totally agree. I think the election result put these kind of things on notice that they might be looked into. However, we'll have to see what happens.
*duct tapes banana to wall*
There's a whole world of fruit and vegetables for the taking!
I wonder if it was an apeel.
I'll never see a banana or cucumber in quite the same way again..... ( Freud enters the room ).
I know people are worried about the incoming administration. I am more worried that our culture has gone bananas.
David, Thank you for doing what you do to help folks living in poverty. Yesterday morning, I watched the seemingly endless line of cars waiting at the food pantry next door for the Thanksgiving meals they give out every year. I've lived next door for 6 years and it seemed that the line was the longest I have seen since the first year of the pandemic. Times are tough for so many of us. Wishing you and yours Happy Thanksgiving.
The drying up of the Covid era aid is certainly also a factor. I'm hearing similar things from people engaged in helping the impoverished.
The high coast of housing is one of the worst factors where I live in coastal Essex County, Massachusetts. As I am sure you know. it's an issue in many areas across the country. I don't know how we make things better for people living in poverty. I don't see poverty policy being re-written to do more for them. We see trickle down most prevalent in poverty policy in fact.
In other words, statistically speaking, "Yes, we have no bananas". I'm afraid the bending of statistics goes way beyond the economy. It was true of Covid. It may well be true of crime, immigration, and who knows what else. Managing without data can be dumb - but managing with data provides every opportunity to shape data to the advantage of the shaper (or shapeshifter, as the case may be). Day to day, the private sector does a decent (though certainly not perfect) job of weeding out this kind of information abuse and free elections serve somewhat the same purpose in the public sector - though with more success. I'm thankful for the checks and balances we have, but more and more, it seems to me as if we are falling into the same failed ways as the the Soviets who managed according to "five year plans" which inevitably produced the Orwellian result of statistical success and real life failure.
"though with less success" , not more
Whether the stats were bent purposefully or due to a now flawed methodology, i suppose the result is the same. If I had to guess it would be a flawed model. But who knows?
Opening line from graduate school professor in Advanced Statistics course: “No one disputes their own data.” ‘Bout the only point I remember from that class.
Thanks for the banana! (Marcel Duchamp must be beside himself with glee, spinning in his grave like a top.) And for the quill tip. I’m a rank amateur but good writing on economics is always appreciated. Have always been skeptical of the official stats, though, particularly those that painted a rosy picture of our Century 21 reality while the price of the most valuable non-liquid assets - a house, an education - kept trending steeply upward (when not sinking like a stone a la 2008-9). The revised employment numbers reflect poorly on those that kept insisting everything was actually great, and that voters were swinging at phantoms.
Thanks Tim.
I have to confess that I was more of a believer in the headline statistics before looking at a lot of the data in Quill Intelligence.