Only the future can answer this question. But that doesn’t mean it’s not worth asking. On Friday, The Commerce Department published a 100 plus page set of rules sharply restricting China’s access to advanced semiconductor technology. I’m unqualified to opine on the technological and supply chain implications of the new rules. But across a wide spectrum of publications, those who do know what they’re talking about believe the new rules are a huge blow to China’s economic and military ambitions as well as uniquely provocative in the context of our recent relationship with China.
Oct 12, 2022·edited Oct 12, 2022Liked by david roberts
You've raised a good awareness about China.
I think however, China has long been conducting a war with the US. Stealing patents, IP, Research both academic and industrial.
"The historical analogy I’m tempted to reach for is the 1940 American oil embargo on Japan. But the only real lesson from that is economic war can lead to real war."
I think you misread the history here. Japan was a national terrorist organization that made Al-Queda, the Taliban, ISIS and the sum total of all Islamic terrorists combined look like a group of 3rd grade schoolchildren.
The Japanese invaded China (Manchuria) in 1931 and full on war from 1937. The Japanese Army was barbaric and genocidal.
The Japanese army killed 1 to 4 Holocausts of Chinese.
So... the oil embargo is really a kind of an excuse used by Japanese. The reality is they were a monstrous peoples convinced about their density. They killed innocents with impunity.
So, the real failure of America's so called Greatest Generation (it was not), was their fear and cowardice in NOT arming in the early 1930s and going to the military aid of China and the Jewish peoples in the mid 30s Such a strong military built 5 years before Pearl Harbor might have easily deterred the Japanese, and possibly Hilter.
I also agree that Japan was already conducting brutal war in Asia before the oil embargo.
And I'm not claiming that the 1940 oil embargo was the wrong policy, either. Just that economic war can lead to real war.
My main purpose was to question whether this policy, clearly escalatory, was carefully thought through and timed from a strategic point of view or was motivated by the midterms.
It's looking like the the banking class that runs the national security state is happy to lead us headlong into WWIII. It seems to me most like the run up to WWI, a bunch of trade alliance conflicts, with the US worried about economic competition from China and and a Eurasian bloc.
Otherwise, none of these countries actually threatens us in any way. The world would be a better place if we cooperated with other countries rather than insisted on dominating them. It's just greed and the insanity it breeds.
It's an interesting question, but given the state of US politics, a state in which statesmanship and true patriotism are obliterated by partisanship, I suspect the same question can now be asked of any piece of legislation that Congress passes.
I think your point is a much larger question, of which China policy is but one piece.
I totally agree with your analysis of the situation and find the media silence damning of how ignorant most Americans are about China. The U.S. kneecapped the Japanese economy with the Plaza Accord Agreement in the 1980's and you can be sure that China took note and will not allow the same to happen to them.
I also doubt that today the U.S. has the multilateral support to economically attack the Chinese economy. The effects of supply chain disruptions from the Covid Pandemic are still fresh in most countries' minds and, with the threat of global economic threats from inflation, I doubt anyone will want to rock the boat. Meanwhile China is fed up with being tagged as the international boogie man without provocation.
As the U.S. edges towards a very contentious 2024 Presidential election on the verge of civil war, it may be too distracted to be much of a threat to China and one can be sure the "Made In China 2025" program just kicked into overdrive. Disrupting the super computer chip market now dominated by Asia will slow development of not just military equipment but all sorts of new high technology developments. China and the rest of Asia are not likely to take this arrogant act of stupidity lying down and any advantage the U.S. may have enjoyed in this market will likely evaporate as the Asians leapfrog ahead. "Lead, follow, or get out of the way..."
You've raised a good awareness about China.
I think however, China has long been conducting a war with the US. Stealing patents, IP, Research both academic and industrial.
"The historical analogy I’m tempted to reach for is the 1940 American oil embargo on Japan. But the only real lesson from that is economic war can lead to real war."
I think you misread the history here. Japan was a national terrorist organization that made Al-Queda, the Taliban, ISIS and the sum total of all Islamic terrorists combined look like a group of 3rd grade schoolchildren.
The Japanese invaded China (Manchuria) in 1931 and full on war from 1937. The Japanese Army was barbaric and genocidal.
The Japanese army killed 1 to 4 Holocausts of Chinese.
So... the oil embargo is really a kind of an excuse used by Japanese. The reality is they were a monstrous peoples convinced about their density. They killed innocents with impunity.
So, the real failure of America's so called Greatest Generation (it was not), was their fear and cowardice in NOT arming in the early 1930s and going to the military aid of China and the Jewish peoples in the mid 30s Such a strong military built 5 years before Pearl Harbor might have easily deterred the Japanese, and possibly Hilter.
I agree about China's economic sins against us.
I also agree that Japan was already conducting brutal war in Asia before the oil embargo.
And I'm not claiming that the 1940 oil embargo was the wrong policy, either. Just that economic war can lead to real war.
My main purpose was to question whether this policy, clearly escalatory, was carefully thought through and timed from a strategic point of view or was motivated by the midterms.
It's looking like the the banking class that runs the national security state is happy to lead us headlong into WWIII. It seems to me most like the run up to WWI, a bunch of trade alliance conflicts, with the US worried about economic competition from China and and a Eurasian bloc.
Otherwise, none of these countries actually threatens us in any way. The world would be a better place if we cooperated with other countries rather than insisted on dominating them. It's just greed and the insanity it breeds.
It's an interesting question, but given the state of US politics, a state in which statesmanship and true patriotism are obliterated by partisanship, I suspect the same question can now be asked of any piece of legislation that Congress passes.
I think your point is a much larger question, of which China policy is but one piece.
Don't a lot of our pharmaceuticals come from China? Might force them to take over Taiwan, a war we can't win.
I totally agree with your analysis of the situation and find the media silence damning of how ignorant most Americans are about China. The U.S. kneecapped the Japanese economy with the Plaza Accord Agreement in the 1980's and you can be sure that China took note and will not allow the same to happen to them.
I also doubt that today the U.S. has the multilateral support to economically attack the Chinese economy. The effects of supply chain disruptions from the Covid Pandemic are still fresh in most countries' minds and, with the threat of global economic threats from inflation, I doubt anyone will want to rock the boat. Meanwhile China is fed up with being tagged as the international boogie man without provocation.
As the U.S. edges towards a very contentious 2024 Presidential election on the verge of civil war, it may be too distracted to be much of a threat to China and one can be sure the "Made In China 2025" program just kicked into overdrive. Disrupting the super computer chip market now dominated by Asia will slow development of not just military equipment but all sorts of new high technology developments. China and the rest of Asia are not likely to take this arrogant act of stupidity lying down and any advantage the U.S. may have enjoyed in this market will likely evaporate as the Asians leapfrog ahead. "Lead, follow, or get out of the way..."