I like the 1998 movie “Sliding Doors;" within the confines of a romantic comedy, it does a good job of demonstrating how small events can have an outsized influence on the course of a life.
Lovely essay. Here's my version of these thoughts. I have had plenty of miserable things happen to me: abandoned by father, mother dies when I'm 7, fostered the adopted by mother's friends who turned out to be abusive, ghosted by my mother's family of origin. Predictable string of bad boyfriends with unpleasant occurences ensuing. From time to time, I wonder what if I had written my fourth grade two-paragraph essay about what really happened on the weekend. My life is so good now; I wouldn't change it. Of course, the me who did disclose or who didn't sleep through the PSAT would never know about my Substack or my kids or the misty morning view I'm gazing at right now, nor this cup of tea, just as I don't know what wonders or horrors she would have experienced.
Great comment. I’ve had some horror shows as well but that gave me two of the things that matter most to me: the empathy to be a good teacher and the passion to be a writer. The version of me that had a different story? No idea.
Mary, I think there's an inclination not to want to change things of there's grace, love, and joy in our current lives. It's the bird in the hand mentality to which I certainly subscribe as well.
Love this piece, David. I'm currently reading the book Fluke, by Brian Klaas, which explores these phenomena—with some different but equally startling examples from WWII and his own family history. I think you'd enjoy it.
If my parents had pressed me not to give up on Middlebury College, where I spent one year and checked out emotionally in the first semester, I would not have enrolled at the University of Toronto. I married a Canadian, built a rewarding career in the Canadian magazine industry and am now a grateful dual citizen. Middlebury, unlike U of T, had a teaching staff that paid close attention to promising students. I suspect my professors would have groomed me for academia. Different parents might have pointed out that I should give Middlebury one full year before setting my sights elsewhere. Mine accepted my hasty conclusion that I needed to escape. I owe my current life to a lack of parental rigor.
Yay Steve!!!! This was one of your best pieces David! I’ve done a lot of thinking about how small events can make huge changes. Yet the seeds are always there. You and Debbie were who you were when you met - both quite awhile in the making. I find that when I take every opportunity that I see, especially reaching out to people and maintaining connections, opportunities arise. One thing leads to another. The path is rarely how I thought it would be so I try not to over plan anymore. Love this one - I may write about similar on my Substack.
It can be hard when you've got a lot going on. I've been wanting to visit new synagogues, but when I'm working at a very difficult teaching job, by Friday night I'm just so exhausted I can barely move. I'll remember this story and make sure I get myself out there! Steve is the new hero!
My grandmother proposed the ultimate 'sliding doors' event back in the 1950s when I and my siblings had our teeth straightened: "If they had had braces in my day, none of you would have ever existed". She always felt she married beneath her.
I wrote my own equivalent moment to yours (which had 'counterfactual' in the title, if I remember correctly) about the dreadful failure I felt, age 17, when I was turned down by Radcliffe (Harvard now). went elsewhere, did a 'junior year abroad' to London, met my now husband (62 years married and counting) and ended up living in London, which suits we very well.
So interesting about the teeth Ann and your grandmother's comment. I was rejected from my first choice college and now, like you, would not want to change that or anything else.
Th teeth comment was made when I was about 12 years old - I thought it was funny then and I still think it is funny - my entire family wiped out (father, siblings etc, never mind all the subsequent generations) because her teeth were crooked! And my first brush with counterfactuals. They are good fun as long as you don’t take them too seriously.
in my career, counterfactual scenarios are always top of mind. carbon removal accounting tries to optimize carbon flows on our very messy, unpredictable Earth. If a company buys carbon removal credits to offset their footprint in the present, but the forest those credits are linked to burns down in a climate induced forest fire in the future, it becomes quite the headache. These “ghost credits” have caused lots of trust issues in the carbon market. Then there’s also the fear of a “moral hazard”, that removal tech disincentivizes decarbonization on the promise of its potential.
That's interesting, Harrison, about the ghost credits. And also the moral hazard although removal tech from my lay person's perspective has a long way to go before it's viable at any scale.
You might enjoy the book Making History by Stephen Fry (yes, that Stephen Fry) which explores these ideas against the backdrop of alternate histories of World War II and time travel. A book I think about quite often.
This is such a thought provoking piece. Thank you for writing it. What it challenges in my thinking is how to accept the links between actions separately from their outcomes. The tenants of Buddhism (of which I was once a devout adherent) are that things are not good or bad; they just are.
Thanks Elizabeth. I think you're raising the question whether are actions to be evaluated separately from their consequences. A drunk driver incurs no penalty unless caught. The action is the same.
I wonder now, at what I am actually chewing on. Yes, to what you say about the drunk driver, but what if the person he kills is on his way to commit a mass murder? You step on a butterfly and change the wold, but the ultimate value, negative or positive, is unknowable. Anyway, I was entranced by the butterfly as a metaphor for our actions in the world and the consequences. Thanks for indulging me!
Wonderful! Kurt Vonnegut and James Michener were the ones who first introduced me to this line of thought. But we can go even further. Really, we can start and never stop. What about the way our parents happened to meet, and their parents, and theirs, and theirs? What if we extend the idea to the power of thought and ideas- to the teachers and professors to whom we were randomly assigned, and those to whom they were assigned, and those before them? And before them? And before them? “And so it goes”!
Oh my goodness so many what ifs. It’s the thing that keeps me up at night. Not necessarily always in a bad way. It’s just so fascinating to think about the different paths we had in front of us and the ones we ended up taking vs the ones we hadn’t. The fantasies of unlived possibilities. The relief of disasters avoided. The gravity of hindsight. And the constant work of always finding our way to gratitude for where we are right now - in this very moment.
I have worked through the Butterfly Effect so many times for my life. If an immigrant had not changed his last name from beginning with a V to a G - my children and grandchildren would not be here. What small and seemingly insignificant decisions are we making that not only change the course of our life, but of people we are completely unaware of for generations to come? The mother in the "Sliding Doors" movie could have decided to stay home or not even have children, and it had an effect. If some "other guy" at the club the night that you and Debbie met would have just gotten up the courage to talk to her?? Another version of the Butterfly Effect in art is the play If/Then with Idina Mendzel that is the interwoven stories of Liz/Beth. If I would have washed my hands one more time, would I have gotten COVID, if she would have gone to the doctor earlier, and all of the factors that need to come into play for anyone to actually get pregnant and have a child boggle the mind and make us understand that we really are not in control at all!
Lydia, Thank you for mentioning If/Then! I saw it in previews, loved it, and told my family it was going to be a big hit. They all went and none of them liked it. Nor did the critics. But I still insist it was great.
My goodness, I think about this stuff waaay too much. For me, probably presidential assassinations and assassination attempts are the most fascinating.
So many happenstance circumstances that lead to near misses and tragic outcomes.
That's true, Henry. Lots of near misses in assassination attempts. And I bet there have been near miss geopolitical disasters we don't even know about.
Lovely essay. Here's my version of these thoughts. I have had plenty of miserable things happen to me: abandoned by father, mother dies when I'm 7, fostered the adopted by mother's friends who turned out to be abusive, ghosted by my mother's family of origin. Predictable string of bad boyfriends with unpleasant occurences ensuing. From time to time, I wonder what if I had written my fourth grade two-paragraph essay about what really happened on the weekend. My life is so good now; I wouldn't change it. Of course, the me who did disclose or who didn't sleep through the PSAT would never know about my Substack or my kids or the misty morning view I'm gazing at right now, nor this cup of tea, just as I don't know what wonders or horrors she would have experienced.
Also, Run Lola Run is in the same genre of film.
Great comment. I’ve had some horror shows as well but that gave me two of the things that matter most to me: the empathy to be a good teacher and the passion to be a writer. The version of me that had a different story? No idea.
Mary, I think there's an inclination not to want to change things of there's grace, love, and joy in our current lives. It's the bird in the hand mentality to which I certainly subscribe as well.
Love this piece, David. I'm currently reading the book Fluke, by Brian Klaas, which explores these phenomena—with some different but equally startling examples from WWII and his own family history. I think you'd enjoy it.
Thanks Rob. Will check out Fluke.
Loved that book!!
If my parents had pressed me not to give up on Middlebury College, where I spent one year and checked out emotionally in the first semester, I would not have enrolled at the University of Toronto. I married a Canadian, built a rewarding career in the Canadian magazine industry and am now a grateful dual citizen. Middlebury, unlike U of T, had a teaching staff that paid close attention to promising students. I suspect my professors would have groomed me for academia. Different parents might have pointed out that I should give Middlebury one full year before setting my sights elsewhere. Mine accepted my hasty conclusion that I needed to escape. I owe my current life to a lack of parental rigor.
Yay Steve!!!! This was one of your best pieces David! I’ve done a lot of thinking about how small events can make huge changes. Yet the seeds are always there. You and Debbie were who you were when you met - both quite awhile in the making. I find that when I take every opportunity that I see, especially reaching out to people and maintaining connections, opportunities arise. One thing leads to another. The path is rarely how I thought it would be so I try not to over plan anymore. Love this one - I may write about similar on my Substack.
Thanks April.I sometimes question myself about being socially lazy and NOT taking advantage of opportunities. Steve really saved me!
It can be hard when you've got a lot going on. I've been wanting to visit new synagogues, but when I'm working at a very difficult teaching job, by Friday night I'm just so exhausted I can barely move. I'll remember this story and make sure I get myself out there! Steve is the new hero!
My grandmother proposed the ultimate 'sliding doors' event back in the 1950s when I and my siblings had our teeth straightened: "If they had had braces in my day, none of you would have ever existed". She always felt she married beneath her.
I wrote my own equivalent moment to yours (which had 'counterfactual' in the title, if I remember correctly) about the dreadful failure I felt, age 17, when I was turned down by Radcliffe (Harvard now). went elsewhere, did a 'junior year abroad' to London, met my now husband (62 years married and counting) and ended up living in London, which suits we very well.
So interesting about the teeth Ann and your grandmother's comment. I was rejected from my first choice college and now, like you, would not want to change that or anything else.
Th teeth comment was made when I was about 12 years old - I thought it was funny then and I still think it is funny - my entire family wiped out (father, siblings etc, never mind all the subsequent generations) because her teeth were crooked! And my first brush with counterfactuals. They are good fun as long as you don’t take them too seriously.
Thank you David. Morning sunshine provided me multiple butterfly effects meanings while reading this/your post today.
in my career, counterfactual scenarios are always top of mind. carbon removal accounting tries to optimize carbon flows on our very messy, unpredictable Earth. If a company buys carbon removal credits to offset their footprint in the present, but the forest those credits are linked to burns down in a climate induced forest fire in the future, it becomes quite the headache. These “ghost credits” have caused lots of trust issues in the carbon market. Then there’s also the fear of a “moral hazard”, that removal tech disincentivizes decarbonization on the promise of its potential.
That's interesting, Harrison, about the ghost credits. And also the moral hazard although removal tech from my lay person's perspective has a long way to go before it's viable at any scale.
Such a compelling concept, the what if I? I think of it often, so much that is good in my life all depending on so many unlikely chances.
Haha. Three things:
-You did not mention the great Robert Frost poem, The Road Not Taken.
-There's a terrific book by a physicist, Leonard Mlodinow, The Drunkards Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives. It's a great read.
-Finally, there is the old bit of profound Yiddish wisdom. "If grandma had a schlong, she'd be grandpa."
The Yiddish one is my favorite.
Mine too. As my Aunt Fanny used to say, "Vhat's not to like?" (To think she could have been Uncle Morris.)
You might enjoy the book Making History by Stephen Fry (yes, that Stephen Fry) which explores these ideas against the backdrop of alternate histories of World War II and time travel. A book I think about quite often.
Thanks Anu. Fry is a writer I enjoy.
This is such a thought provoking piece. Thank you for writing it. What it challenges in my thinking is how to accept the links between actions separately from their outcomes. The tenants of Buddhism (of which I was once a devout adherent) are that things are not good or bad; they just are.
Thanks Elizabeth. I think you're raising the question whether are actions to be evaluated separately from their consequences. A drunk driver incurs no penalty unless caught. The action is the same.
I wonder now, at what I am actually chewing on. Yes, to what you say about the drunk driver, but what if the person he kills is on his way to commit a mass murder? You step on a butterfly and change the wold, but the ultimate value, negative or positive, is unknowable. Anyway, I was entranced by the butterfly as a metaphor for our actions in the world and the consequences. Thanks for indulging me!
A bit of psychedelic rock about the butterfly effect...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EL9ZxW5ljGw&t=1s
Thanks Ivy.
Wonderful! Kurt Vonnegut and James Michener were the ones who first introduced me to this line of thought. But we can go even further. Really, we can start and never stop. What about the way our parents happened to meet, and their parents, and theirs, and theirs? What if we extend the idea to the power of thought and ideas- to the teachers and professors to whom we were randomly assigned, and those to whom they were assigned, and those before them? And before them? And before them? “And so it goes”!
Some distant ancestor evades a wild beast and here we are!
Oh my goodness so many what ifs. It’s the thing that keeps me up at night. Not necessarily always in a bad way. It’s just so fascinating to think about the different paths we had in front of us and the ones we ended up taking vs the ones we hadn’t. The fantasies of unlived possibilities. The relief of disasters avoided. The gravity of hindsight. And the constant work of always finding our way to gratitude for where we are right now - in this very moment.
Thanks Cici. Our friendship started from being put int he same Zoom room! You can't get more random than that!
Or lucky!!
I have worked through the Butterfly Effect so many times for my life. If an immigrant had not changed his last name from beginning with a V to a G - my children and grandchildren would not be here. What small and seemingly insignificant decisions are we making that not only change the course of our life, but of people we are completely unaware of for generations to come? The mother in the "Sliding Doors" movie could have decided to stay home or not even have children, and it had an effect. If some "other guy" at the club the night that you and Debbie met would have just gotten up the courage to talk to her?? Another version of the Butterfly Effect in art is the play If/Then with Idina Mendzel that is the interwoven stories of Liz/Beth. If I would have washed my hands one more time, would I have gotten COVID, if she would have gone to the doctor earlier, and all of the factors that need to come into play for anyone to actually get pregnant and have a child boggle the mind and make us understand that we really are not in control at all!
Lydia, Thank you for mentioning If/Then! I saw it in previews, loved it, and told my family it was going to be a big hit. They all went and none of them liked it. Nor did the critics. But I still insist it was great.
My goodness, I think about this stuff waaay too much. For me, probably presidential assassinations and assassination attempts are the most fascinating.
So many happenstance circumstances that lead to near misses and tragic outcomes.
That's true, Henry. Lots of near misses in assassination attempts. And I bet there have been near miss geopolitical disasters we don't even know about.
The book 'Chaos' by James Gleick goes at this stuff with scientific thoroughness.